Industry benchmarks for Subscription Box
Break-even ROAS on the first subscription box is roughly 2.5x, and almost no operator hits it, which is why the category average achieved ROAS is about 1.6x. First-box economics are deliberately negative: curation cost plus fulfillment takes 55-60% of a $30-40 box, and most brands discount the first month by 30-50% on top. Prospecting CPMs run $14-26 with conversion at 1.5-3.0%. Profitability depends entirely on whether the subscriber survives to month three.
Month-two churn is the single number that determines whether the model works. Typical boxes lose 25-40% of subscribers after the first renewal, and cutting that to 18% roughly doubles lifetime contribution against unchanged acquisition cost. Calculate break-even ROAS against expected 6-month value, not first-box revenue: at a 12% monthly churn rate, average subscriber life is about 8 months and $170-200 of revenue, which pulls the true break-even below 0.6x. Skip-a-month and pause options reduce cancellations more than any discount offer does.
Frequently asked questions
Break-Even ROAS Calculator for Subscription Box, answered.
What is a good ROAS for a subscription box?
First-box ROAS of 1.5-1.8x is normal and the category averages 1.6x. Judge performance on 6-month subscriber value, where break-even falls below 0.6x.
Why is first-box break-even ROAS so high?
Curation and fulfillment take 55-60% of box price and most brands discount the first month 30-50%, leaving very little contribution on order one.
What metric matters more than ROAS for subscription boxes?
Month-two retention. Cutting churn from 35% to 18% at that renewal roughly doubles lifetime contribution per acquired subscriber.